November Domestic Primary Aluminum Billet Production Remains Relatively Stable, Despite One Day Less Than October [SMM Analysis]

November domestic primary aluminum billet production remained relatively stable. November can be described as a "turbulent period." Before the cancellation of aluminum semis export tax rebates, aluminum extrusion enterprises rushed to export in the latter half of November, and downstream rushed to meet deadlines, driving some aluminum billet enterprises' operating performance. Therefore, despite one less operating day in November compared to October, the daily average production of domestic primary aluminum billets remained stable at around 49,000 mt/day. According to the latest monthly survey data from SMM, the number of sample enterprises in the SMM monthly survey for primary aluminum billets is 169, with a total capacity of 31.205 million mt, unchanged from the previous month. In November 2024 (30 days), the total production of primary aluminum billets nationwide was 1.477 million mt, down 30,000 mt MoM from October 2024 (31 days), a decrease of 1.99%; YoY, it increased by 159,000 mt, an increase of 12.1%. The domestic operating rate of primary aluminum billets in November was 56.8%, down 1.2% MoM. By region, aluminum billet processing fees in South China were high in November, with a strong sentiment to stand firm on quotes, and the operating rate of aluminum billets in neighboring provinces such as Guangxi and Yunnan fluctuated at highs. In provinces such as Henan, Ningxia, Shanxi, and Qinghai, aluminum billet production increased instead of decreasing, mainly driven by downstream rush to export. In Inner Mongolia, due to annual maintenance by large billet plants and lower-than-expected demand, production slowed significantly, with aluminum billet production dropping nearly 12% MoM. In other major aluminum billet-producing provinces such as Shandong, Xinjiang, and Gansu, production dropped back slightly MoM.

Overall, with December entering the traditional off-season and export rush overdrawing some December orders, downstream demand is weakening, and the stable operating performance of billet plants may be difficult to sustain. SMM expects a more significant drop in domestic primary aluminum billet production in December.